RURAL-URBAN MIGRATION IN BOLIVIA: AN ESCAPE BOAT?

This paper studies rural-urban migration in Bolivia. Domestic migration usually works as an equalization mechanism, in which regions with fewer economic opportunities send migrants to more dynamic regions. We model the migration decision and take into account the possibility of self-selection for computing the returns to migration. We present selectivity corrected quantile regression models for earnings of both migrants and non-migrants in urban and metropolitan areas. We find that migrants receive a premium at low and median quantiles of the urban/metro conditional earnings distribution. This premium is somewhat diminished by a negative selectivity correction for migrants with lower probabilities of migration.

Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks in the Brazilian Market for Bank Reserves

We estimate an identified VAR (SVAR) with contemporaneous restrictions derived from a model of the market for bank reserves, which allows us to disentangle monetary policy shocks from demand shocks for reserves in Brazil. The main results are: i) the Central Bank of Brazil acts in order to smooth the bank reserve market interest rate (Selic); ii) the spread between the Selic rate and the discount rate provides information to estimate the demand curve for borrowed reserves; iii) overidentifying restrictions show that we cannot reject, for any period or model, the interest rate operational target hypothesis, even during the fixed exchange rate regime; iv) the impulse response functions show that shocks to the demand for reserves and to borrowed reserves generate statistically significant responses in real output and the inflation rate; v) all models display the liquidity effect and a small inflation rate puzzle.

Explaining Bank Failures in Brazil: Micro, Macro and Contagion Effects (1994-1998)

We apply duration (survival) models with exponential hazard and exponential piecewise-constant hazard functions to study the determinants of bank failure over the period 1994 to 1998 in Brazil. The models deal empirically with left censoring in the data. We control for macroeconomic conditions and contagion effects, besides bank-specific factors. Our results indicate that foreign banks have distinct empirical survival functions relatively to other banks. For Brazil, macroeconomic and bank-level covariates explain the likelihood and timing of bank failure. Our indicator of system-wide financial fragility (IFF) suggests that the banking industry faced increased fragility after November 1995. We find evidence that the Program of Incentives to the Restructuring and Strengthening of the National Financial System (Proer) was able to distinguish solvent from insolvent banks.

MENSURAÇÃO DAS EFICIÊNCIAS DAS DISTRIBUIDORAS DO SETOR ENERGÉTICO BRASILEIRO USANDO FRONTEIRAS ESTOCÁSTICAS

This paper comprises a suggested modus operandi to analyze the efficiency of the Brazilian electrical sector distributing companies based on the econometrics study of information and data that directly affect distributing companies´ efficiency, such as operational cost, amount of employees, energy volume supplied, and some qualitative indicators, such as percentage of energy losses, average duration of the supply suspension to the consumer per year in hours (DEC) and average quantity of the supply suspension to the consumer in a year (FEC). Besides these, some social-economic indicators are considered, such as monthly income and demographic density of each company. House electrical devices and a privatization's dummy variables were also created. The analysis starts with the definition of production and cost frontiers, followed by the study of variables that have an influence on each of these and estimation of the production and cost frontier functions, through the Stochastic Frontier Method.

Modelos Não Paramétricos Robustos de Gestão Eficiente de Agências Bancárias: O Caso do Banco de Brasil

Este artigo calcula índices robustos de eficiência para 3663 agências do Banco do Brasil utilizando o método jackstrap que combina técnicas de reamostragem com a analise envoltória de dados (DEA). Os resultados obtidos permitem identificar as agências empresariais e públicas como outliers. Consequentemente, o uso dessas unidades atípicas como referencial para as demais unidades conduz a sérias distorções sendo, pois, desaconselhado. Além disso, a inclusão do número de contas como produto modifica, substancialmente, os índices de eficiência já que dilui o impacto de outras importantes variáveis, tais como a rentabilidade financeira das agências. Finalmente, nossos resultados sugerem, ainda, que as unidades mais eficientes têm um maior número de clientes, servem ao agronegócio e localizam-se em pequenas municipalidades.Análise Envoltória de Dados, Jackstrap, Outliers, Eficiência Intra-Bancária, Alavancagem DEA

Public higher education in Brazil : costs, benefits and distributive effects

O presente artigo se propõe a mensurar, por faixas de renda, quem são os financiadores e os beneficiários do sistema de educação superior pública no Brasil e, assim, mensurar a magnitude da redistribuição associada ao financiamento público dessa modalidade educacional. Como em outros países, a percepção usual é que as universidades públicas brasileiras são gratuitas e usufruídas principalmente pelas classes de maior rendimento. Na linha de Barbaro (2005), ao incluir os principais gastos públicos relacionados à educação superior e os respectivos custos tributários, estimamos um benefício líquido por classe de renda. Observamos no caso brasileiro uma transferência líquida dos 20% mais ricos para o restante da população e uma concentração desse benefício líquido no intervalo do 4o ao 7o decil de renda domiciliar per capita. Portanto, considerando apenas o orçamento público relativo ao ensino superior, essa transferência líquida atenuaria a significativa desigualdade de renda brasileira.This paper addresses one aspect of equity: income, associated with the access to and funding of public universities in Brazil. As in other countries, the usual perception is that Brazilian public universities are free and attended mainly by high income students. In line with Barbaro (2005), considering the main public spending with higher education and the related tax costs, we estimate a net benefit by income decile. We observe for Brazil a net transfer of the richest 20% to the rest of the population and a concentration of net benefit in the 4th to the 7th decile range of per capita household income. Therefore, considering only the public budget for higher education, this net transfer would not reach the poorest 30% of the population, but it would still mitigate the significant inequality of Brazilian income

Residual and technical tax efficiency scores for Brazilian municipalities: a two-stage approach

Recurrent fiscal imbalances in terms of tax and expenditure assignments among central and local governments are a critical issue in public finance. To equalize tax capacities, cope with spillovers or to achieve national policy objectives, central governments often provide transfers to lower levels of government. These transfers may affect the incentives to improve fiscal performance because they may induce low tax effort in the regions (Litvack, Ahmad and Bird, 1998; Boadway et al., 1999).Recurrent fiscal imbalances in terms of tax and expenditure assignments among central and local governments are a critical issue in public finance. To equalize tax capacities, cope with spillovers or to achieve national policy objectives, central governments often provide transfers to lower levels of government. These transfers may affect the incentives to improve fiscal performance because they may induce low tax effort in the regions (Litvack, Ahmad and Bird, 1998; Boadway et al., 1999)

Medidas de custo-eficiência dos serviços subnacionais de segurança pública no Brasil: 2001-2006

We calculated the efficiencies with which Brazilian states provide public safety by using a stochastic frontier cost function and panel data from 2001-2006. We estimate a Translog with fixed effects where prices for the production factors are the initial salaries of military police, civil police, and precinct chiefs and the product is the inverse of the homicide rate. To explain inefficiencies we use economic and demographic variables which measure active drug markets and the allocation of judicial, police, and penitentiary expenditures. Our models indicate that inefficiencies are higher when the size of drug markets, the ratio of military to civil police, the rate of high school dropouts, and income inequality increase. On the other hand, increasing judicial expenditures and the number of prison cells reduce inefficiency. São Paulo is the most cost efficient state providing public safety, whereas the Federal District is the least cost efficient.Calculamos índices de custo-eficiência para os serviços estaduais de segurança pública no Brasil com um modelo de fronteira estocástica e dados longitudinais 2001-2006. Estimamos uma Translog com efeitos fixos e utilizamos os salários das polícias militar e civil e delegados como preços dos fatores de produção, e o inverso da taxa de homicídios como medida do produto, além de variáveis econômico-demográficas, mercado de drogas ativo e alocação dos recursos judiciais, policiais e penitenciários como explicativas das ineficiências. Os índices de ineficiência são maiores quanto maior a participação do mercado de drogas, a razão polícia militar/polícia civil, a taxa de abandono do ensino médio e a desigualdade de renda. Já as despesas com o judiciário e o número de vagas no sistema penitenciário reduzem tais índices. São Paulo é, em média, o estado mais custo-eficiente na provisão de segurança pública enquanto o Distrito Federal é o menos